KUWAIT CITY, Oct 24, (Agencies): His Highness the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah will depart on Tuesday, Oct 25, to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to pay condolences to the royal family on the passing of Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Crown Prince, Deputy Premier and Minister of Defense and Aviation and Inspector General.
Meanwhile, world dignitaries were expected to begin arriving in Saudi Arabia on Monday to offer condolences for the death of Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, whose successor is yet to be named.
US Vice President Joe Biden, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, are among the world leaders heading to the Saudi capital to offer condolences.
The body of Prince Sultan, who died Saturday in a New York hospital, was repatriated to Riyadh Monday for a subdued funeral on Tuesday, in line with strict Islamic traditions applied in the ultra-conservative kingdom.
It is the first time that the seat of the heir to the throne becomes vacant in the history of the oil-rich Gulf state.
Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, a half-brother of King Abdullah and the kingdom’s internal security czar, who has held the interior portfolio for over three decades, is touted as the most likely heir.
King Abdullah, who is also the prime minister, had in 2009 appointed Prince Nayef, 78, as second deputy premier, in a move interpreted as putting him in line for the throne.
Sultan was the second deputy prime minister until the then crown prince Abdullah acceded to the throne in 2005.
Sultan’s death comes also after Abdullah created in 2006 the Allegiance Council, comprised of 35 princes charged with deciding together with the reigning king who will be crown prince.
“The rules of the Allegiance Council stipulate that the crown prince would be chosen by the council,” said Fahd al-Harthi, head of the Riyadh-based ASBAR Centre for Studies, Research and Communications.
“But the royal decree of this system has stated that the current king and crown prince are not forced to abide by this regulation,” he told AFP.
People in the region’s power house sounded at ease about the issue of succession, with some hailing Nayef, known for being a conservative, as the best choice.
At stake is the direction of a US ally attempting to reconcile its conservative traditions with the needs of a modern economy and a young, increasingly outward-looking population.
Influence
Saudi Arabia, which dominates world oil markets and holds profound influence over Muslims through its guardianship of Islam’s holiest sites in Makkah and Madinah, faces turbulence in its neighbours and a confrontation with regional rival Iran .
King Abdullah appears set to appoint veteran Interior Minister Prince Nayef as crown prince and heir, but his choice of a defence minister to replace Sultan, who died in New York on Saturday, may signal how the conservative Islamic state manages the transition to its future leaders.
King Abdullah, Sultan and Nayef have run the country since the late King Fahd fell ill in 1995, but the monarch is in his late 80s and has spent three months abroad this year recovering from a back problem that again required surgery last week.
He remains firmly in control of the kingdom, but the focus will increasingly fall on Nayef and some younger princes.
Chief among them is Prince Salman, the Riyadh Governor who is a full brother of Sultan and Nayef and is seen as next most important in a ruling family that has prized seniority since it was founded by King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud in 1932.
“This all points to the key role of Prince Salman, who sooner or later will move up to crown prince,” said a former diplomat to Riyadh who wished to remain anonymous.
“He will be the one who really decides whether the succession will stay horizontal among the sons of Ibn Saud or go vertical to one of the grandsons.”
If the enigmatic Nayef becomes crown prince, his character will shape for years to come the way Saudi Arabia tackles a host of challenges at a time of unprecedented change, both for the kingdom and the wider Middle East.
“Nayef had some time with Sultan’s long illness to run himself in as crown prince and he has acted on behalf of the king,” said another former diplomat. “He has become acquainted with authority across the board.”
Democracy
To Saudi liberals, Nayef represents the stern face of the conservative establishment: opposed to any moves towards democracy or women’s rights, a supporter of the religious police and the veteran head of an Interior Ministry that locks up political activists without charge.
“I’m very worried that Prince Nayef will be the next crown prince,” said a 47-year-old woman who did not give her name. “I fear that reform plans will not go forward if he takes power.”
Nayef was quoted soon after the Sept 11, 2001 attacks on the United States as doubting that any of his compatriots had been involved when 15 of the 19 hijackers were in fact Saudis.
However, former diplomats, local journalists and royal family members who have dealt with him paint a softer portrait of a man at the centre of Saudi politics for over three decades.
“Many things are said about Prince Nayef, but I find him to be a very kind man with a foot on the ground by meeting people,” said Khaled al-Maeena, editor at large of the Arab News daily in Jeddah. “He has the pulse of the nation.”
Reforms enacted by King Abdullah have aimed to strengthen private sector growth and loosen the grip of conservative clerics on the education system and judiciary.
“I don’t think the gloom and doom about Nayef is justified,” said the former diplomat. “You have to realise that Saudi Arabia is run by a coalition. It’s not an autocracy run by one man.”
During the long illness of Sultan and absences of the king, Nayef stood in for his elder brothers, meeting world leaders and managing the kingdom’s day-to-day affairs.
“I don’t think there will be a susbtantial change of direction,” said Hossein Shobokshi, a columnist for the state-owned news channel Al Arabiya. “The country has always opted for the non-surprising method. So we don’t see any big decisions in policy.”
People familiar with him also point out that, as interior minister, Nayef interacts with normal Saudis more frequently than any other senior prince, dealing with the problems of individual citizens in matters ranging from crime to poverty.
The simultaneous changes of both the crown prince and defence minister might prompt a wider cabinet reshuffle, said analysts, although Abdullah’s actions might be constrained by the need to maintain a balance between senior princes.
“Doing a cabinet reshuffle in Saudi Arabia is like Sudoku,” said an analyst who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the subject. “You think you have solved it and then, whoops, the nine is in the wrong place.”
Two possible candidates for the Defence Ministry are Prince Khaled bin Sultan, who has been his father’s deputy there since 2001, and Prince Salman.