THERE is a saying in Arabic that ‘Every malady has a cure except stupidity’. The cap fits the regime in Tehran because it is obvious the regime of the mullahs have not learnt from past mistakes, especially when it comes to dealing with neighbors.
Iran’s representative at the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) has uttered the same words which Saddam Hussein used to justify his invasion on Kuwait in 1990.
Although the then Iraqi aggressor accused only Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates of ‘saturating’ the oil market — something which had a negative impact on Iraq — this time, Iran’s representative Mohammed Ali Khatibi added to the list the name of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He accuses the three Gulf States of flooding the international market with oil before the international embargo on Iran takes effect in July 2012.

The concealed Iran’s threat is intertwined with fallacy because over the months countries which are importing oil from Iran have reduced their dependency on import of oil from Tehran.
Countries such as China, India, Greece and Japan have turned towards other oil exporters. Moreover, Iran’s inability to export oil has almost ‘paralyzed’ Tehran fleet of oil tankers.
This is the reality which Iran’s representative at the OPEC is overlooking. This is part of Iran’s policy to bring chaos and scuffles to the region in the hope the scuffles will spare Iran the after effects of the international embargo — political and economical.

Will it not benefit Iran if it seeks new openings to export its oil instead of getting embroiled in unhealthy issues? And are the countries accused by Iran behind the reason for international embargo or was it the hostile attitude of the politicians in Tehran?

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, therefore, can neither increase nor decrease the price of oil because it is crystal clear this commodity is subject to the principle of supply and demand.
Iran is well aware of this fact although it did not accuse other OPEC member states which had increased their oil production to record heights in the past and are still continuing to do so.
I think the leaders of Iran think they can repeat the same stupidity like Saddam Hussein or even more stupidity because on one hand the world at the moment cannot entertain such kinds of adventures and on the other the world will never allow it to happen under current economical hardships witnessed by several countries.

That is why the world will never allow for Iran to continue in its adventure, especially, now that we are in a world where precautionary and anticipatory wars have yielded positive results.
When Iraq invaded Kuwait, the economy of Baghdad was in a better shape compared to Iran’s current economic situation. Add to this the clouds of international embargo looming over Iran.
Now, it is up to Iran to make a calculated move and avoid the shenanigans lest it takes a deep dive in the crisis which may result in its demise.

The way out of this predicament is not by flexing muscles and talking about mobilizing fleets from the Straits of Hormuz to Bab Mandab. Instead, Tehran should rebuild healthy relationships with its neighbors and erase from its mind the ‘superpower illusion’ by taking a lesson or two from the experience of its neighbor — Iraq.

Email: ahmed@aljarallah.com

Follow me on:



ahmedaljarallah@gmail.com