LONDON, March 1: Science writer David Quammen, known for predicting the Covid-19 outbreak seven years before it swept the globe, is now raising concerns about the possibility of another pandemic. In 2012, after interviewing virology and epidemiology experts, Quammen published Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, where he warned that the next pandemic would likely stem from a coronavirus spilled over from a wild animal in a wet market, possibly in China. His prediction was eerily accurate when Covid-19 emerged.

Now, Quammen is increasingly worried about the "next big one." In an exclusive interview with the UK daily, he warned that it's only a matter of time before another global health threat emerges. His concerns come as a new coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, discovered in bats in China, shows striking similarities to the pandemic virus, SARS-CoV-2. Researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology have expressed concern about the potential for this new strain to spill over to humans.

While the new coronavirus is troubling, Quammen's primary concern is bird flu. He believes bird flu, particularly the H5N1 strain, poses the greatest risk of becoming the next pandemic. Quammen explained that the virus has the potential to mutate in ways that allow it to spread easily from person to person, creating an "extremely dangerous" virus. He pointed out that, like Covid-19, the bird flu could spread globally if mutations occur, given the virus's high mutation rates.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu was first detected in the U.S. in 2022. While it has infected 70 people and killed one, the virus has mainly spread among birds. In the last 30 days, over 18.5 million birds have been affected, and the virus has also been detected in various mammals. While human-to-human transmission has not yet been observed, the large-scale replication of the virus in birds means that the possibility of a mutation leading to a pandemic is becoming increasingly likely.

However, Quammen stressed that the emergence of a pandemic depends on the unpredictable nature of viruses. He compared the situation to a game of roulette, where the odds of certain mutations causing a pandemic might seem low, but the more the virus replicates, the higher the chances become. Quammen emphasized that millions of bird flu replications are happening globally every day, increasing the likelihood of a pandemic.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has maintained that the risk of bird flu to humans remains low. However, Quammen pointed to other viruses that could also pose a risk, including coronaviruses and Ebola. He expressed particular concern about a new strain of coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, which was found in bats in China. Tests suggest it can infect human cells in a manner similar to SARS-CoV-2, raising concerns about the potential for spillover to humans.

Quammen also mentioned the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Uganda, which has claimed multiple lives, and the rise of unknown diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 1,000 people have fallen ill, and more than 60 have died. He noted that while these diseases are serious, they may not pose the same global threat as bird flu or other emerging viruses.

Another area of concern for Quammen is mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever, which he referred to as "neglected tropical diseases." These diseases, which primarily affect tropical regions, could spread to other areas due to climate change. While he expressed less concern about diseases like yellow fever, Zika, and West Nile virus, he acknowledged their potential threat.

Quammen also raised concerns about food safety and public health. The massive scale of industrial farming, with billions of chickens and other animals at risk of infection, creates ideal conditions for viruses to evolve. He warned that unsanitary conditions in meat production facilities are "petri dishes for the evolution of viruses." The large-scale production of animal protein, coupled with the increasing global population, contributes to viral outbreaks by disrupting wild ecosystems and creating new opportunities for viruses to spill over into humans.

In order to reduce the risk of future pandemics, Quammen stressed the need for stricter climate change policies and a shift toward a less meat-intensive diet. He advised people to reconsider their consumption of animal products and to think carefully about population growth. Quammen believes that reducing the human population's impact on the environment and limiting the production of animal protein could help mitigate the risk of future pandemics.

Ultimately, Quammen believes that while the emergence of another pandemic is not inevitable, the odds are increasing. He emphasized that human actions—whether through climate change, overconsumption, or unsanitary living conditions—play a critical role in either preventing or facilitating the next global health crisis.