NEW YORK, Feb 20: According to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 3.1 percent chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. This marks the highest threat level ever detected for an asteroid, as reported by Euronews. The likelihood of impact has steadily increased: from 1.3 percent in late January to 2.1 percent the following week, and now, at 3.1 percent.

The asteroid’s potential impact could occur in densely populated regions, should it strike Earth just under eight years from now. NASA's blog post notes, "In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on an impact trajectory, the impact would occur somewhere along a risk corridor extending across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia."

These vast regions include some of the world's largest cities, such as Bogota in Colombia and Mumbai in India. With a size ranging from 130 to 330 feet, the asteroid's impact could cause significant devastation, particularly if it strikes near a population center.

NASA estimates that the asteroid would approach Earth at an alarming speed of 38,000 mph. Upon impact, it would release eight megatons of energy—more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

The European Space Agency (ESA) recently reported that the probability of 2024 YR4's impact now exceeds the 2.7 percent chance associated with the much larger asteroid Apophis in 2004, making it the "riskiest" asteroid ever detected. The ESA added that as more observations are made, the uncertainty surrounding the asteroid’s trajectory will shrink, potentially lowering the impact probability. If Earth is no longer in the asteroid's risk zone, the chance of impact could quickly drop to zero.

At present, 2024 YR4 is rated a 3 on the 11-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale, meaning that while the probability of an impact is low, it still warrants attention from astronomers and public officials if the event is within a decade.

In addition to the 3.1 percent chance of striking Earth, 2024 YR4 also carries a less than one percent chance of hitting the Moon. The object has piqued the interest of NASA, which is using the groundbreaking James Webb Space Telescope to further study the asteroid.

Whether the trajectory will require intervention, such as the asteroid-redirecting DART spacecraft, which successfully altered asteroid Dimorphos’s orbit in 2022, remains uncertain.