MIAMI, Aug 22, (AP): It was a rare diplomatic gamble when the three leaders of Latin America's largest democracies inserted themselves into the high-stakes standoff between Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and his opponents over who won the country’s presidential election.
Dubbed the three amigos - all dyed-in-the-wool leftists who have been friendly with Maduro - the presidents of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico broke from decades of hands-off diplomacy toward Venezuela and their own reluctance to meddle in a neighbor’s sovereign affairs in a region where US military interventions during the Cold War still generate resentment.
But some experts say the peacemaking effort is losing steam before barely getting off the ground.
They cite misgivings by Mexico’s outgoing president, divisions among Latin America’s left and pressure from the US on Maduro to recognize defeat and step aside. The main outcome so far, they say, has been to grant Maduro precious time to consolidate his rule and jail more opponents since the July 28 vote.
"The mediation effort is cautious, focusing on avoiding conflict and a new migration wave rather than defending democracy,” said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, a Venezuelan born analyst and founder of Aurora Macro Strategies, a geopolitical risk consulting firm based in New York.
"It’s hard to be optimistic,” adds Michael Shifter, the former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.
The diplomatic effort by Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Mexico's Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro to resolve the dispute over the election outcome was initially heralded by many in Venezuela’s opposition and the US, which was happy to leave that political minefield to others.
Lula, who dispatched a close aide to Caracas to monitor the vote, refused to recognize Maduro’s claim of victory. Joined by López Obrador and Petro, he also called on Venezuelan authorities to publish detailed tallies of election results - as it has traditionally - to back their claim that Maduro won.