GLOBAL indications suggest that OPEC is no longer able to effectively manage its six million barrels of surplus oil stocks. Over the past several months, the organization has delayed its decision to increase production more than five times, even allowing some of its members to raise output. However, this increase has yet to materialize, and it is unlikely to happen by April. With oil demand not looking promising and expected to worsen, the situation is compounded by the current U.S. administration pushing for more tariffs and tax hikes to deal with its budget deficits.

At the current price level of $73 per barrel, OPEC is in a relatively comfortable position. While this is below the $80 threshold needed to balance its budgets with a slight shortage, it is still an improvement over the $70 level. However, as demand for oil remains stagnant and increased taxation potentially leads to inflation, oil consumption is expected to decrease. This makes OPEC’s upcoming meeting seem unnecessary, with firm indications that no major improvements are expected in the near future. In the coming months, a closer understanding between the U.S. and Russia could lead to more Russian oil entering the market, possibly at the expense of Iranian oil. The U.S. administration is likely to continue exerting pressure to minimize Iranian oil exports.

The overall outlook for the oil markets remains largely unchanged, with an additional surplus of oil globally, making it difficult for OPEC+ to release its six million barrels of idle daily production. With an expected increase of about 1.5 million barrels per day from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana next year, the chances of OPEC+ being able to boost its output are highly uncertain. This also reduces the likelihood of oil prices improving. OPEC+ is now in a tough spot, as it struggles to influence oil prices while non-OPEC oil continues to flow into the market, albeit in smaller volumes, further suppressing prices. This leaves OPEC+ with its six million barrels of unused production capacity and little return on their investments, unable to impact the market for the time being. It appears that OPEC+ is no longer in a position to control oil markets or, more importantly, the price level. With more oil entering the market, the surplus continues to grow, which is certainly not positive news for the organization. As a result, the current price of $73 per barrel is likely to remain for some time, with non-OPEC oil supplies preventing OPEC+ from tapping into its surplus. These barrels will remain in storage until further notice.

By Kamel Al-Harami Independent Oil Analyst

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