07/04/2025
07/04/2025

In Paris, the CAC 40 shed 5.8%, while Britain’s FTSE 100 lost 4.9% in the European morning. U.S. futures signaled further weakness ahead. For the S&P 500, they lost 3.4%, while for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, they shed 3.1%. Futures for the Nasdaq lost 5.3%. If the pre-market futures losses materialize when the U.S. market opens, the S&P 500 will enter bear market territory - defined as a fall of more than 20% from the peak. The index was off 17.4% as of the end of last week. On Friday, the worst market crisis since the COVID-19 pandemic shifted into a higher gear as the S&P 500 plummeted 6% and the Dow plunged 5.5%. The Nasdaq composite dropped 3.8%.
Even a better-than-expected report on the U.S. job market, usually the economic highlight of each month, wasn’t enough to stop the slide. “The idea that there’s so much uncertainty going forward about how these tariffs are going to play out, that’s what’s really driving this plummet in the stock prices,” said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at the Asia Group. Chinese markets often don’t follow global trends, but they also tumbled. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 13.2% to 19,828.30, while the Shanghai Composite index lost 7.3% to 3,096.58. In Taiwan, the Taiex plummeted 9.7%. South Korea’s Kospi lost 5.6% to 2,328.20, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 4.2% to 7,343.30, recovering from a loss of more than 6%. Asian economies are heavily exposed to Trump’s tariffs since they are dependent on exports, and a large share go to the United States. “Beyond the market meltdown, the bigger concern is the impact and potential crises for small and trade-dependent economies, so it’s crucial to see whether Trump will reach deals with most countries soon, at least partially,” said Gary Ng of Nataxis. Oil prices also sank further, with U.S. benchmark crude down $2.30 to $59.69 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gave up $2.33 to $63.25 a barrel. As with the larger sell-off, the drop was fueled by fears that the tariffs would slow economic growth. That would hit demand for fuel, and the drop comes after moves to increase production by the OPEC+ producers’ alliance. Exchange rates also gyrated. The U.S. dollar fell to 146.24 Japanese yen from 146.94 yen. The yen is often viewed as a safe haven in times of turmoil.
The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0992. Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management, said more countries are likely to respond to the U.S. with retaliatory tariffs. Given the large number of countries involved, “it will take a considerable amount of time in our view to work through the various negotiations that are likely to happen.” “Ultimately, our take is market uncertainly and volatility are likely to persist for some time,” he said. The Federal Reserve could cushion the blow of tariffs on the U.S. economy by cutting interest rates. That can encourage companies and households to borrow and spend. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that the higher tariffs could drive up expectations for inflation and lower rates could fuel still more price increases. Much will depend on how long Trump’s tariffs stick and how other countries react. Some investors are holding onto hope he will lower the tariffs after negotiating “wins” from other countries. Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi, wrote in a note to clients that earnings estimates and stock values still don’t reflect the full potential impact of the trade war. “There is ample space to the downside despite the large pullback,” he said.