GAZA STRIP, Jan 11: Research published in The Lancet suggests that the Palestinian death toll from the ongoing war in Gaza could be significantly higher than the official numbers reported by the Hamas-run Health Ministry.

The study, led by a team from the UK, examined data from the Ministry of Health, surveys from families reporting fatalities, and obituaries. It covered the first nine months of the war, which began with a Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The study estimates that by June 30, 2024, around 64,260 Palestinians had died from traumatic injuries, a figure 41% higher than the official toll provided by the Ministry of Health.

The Israeli embassy in the UK dismissed the figures from Gaza, asserting that any data coming from the Hamas-controlled region is unreliable. Meanwhile, the United Nations considers the Health Ministry's figures credible. However, the Ministry does not differentiate between combatants and civilians, though a recent UN report found that the majority of victims verified over a six-month period were women and children.

Israel has also questioned the reliability of the Ministry's death tolls, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claiming in August that they had "eliminated over 17,000 terrorists," although the basis of this claim remains unclear. The IDF insists that it targets only combatants and takes measures to minimize civilian casualties.

The war itself began with a Hamas assault that resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 Israelis and the kidnapping of 251 hostages. In response, Israel launched an extensive military campaign against Gaza. The Ministry of Health reports that 46,006 people, most of them civilians, have been killed as a result of the Israeli military offensive.

For their study, the researchers employed a statistical method known as "capture-recapture," which has been used in other conflict zones to estimate death tolls. They analyzed repeated appearances of individuals on various death toll lists and found that the total number of deaths caused by traumatic injuries may be significantly higher than the official statistics from Gaza’s Ministry of Health.

The study estimated that the Palestinian death toll ranges between 55,298 and 78,525 people, compared to the Ministry's official count of 37,877. These estimates could vary, depending on the nuances of the analysis, such as how deaths from traumatic injuries were categorized. The research also found that, for those whose age and gender were known, 59% of the victims were women, children, or the elderly.

This new study highlights the challenges in verifying accurate death tolls in conflict zones, particularly given the lack of international access to Gaza and the ongoing complexities of the war.