NEW YORK, Dec 8: Life expectancy in the United States already lags behind many other developed nations, placing the country 49th in global rankings as of 2022. However, a new report suggests the US will fall even further, dropping to 66th place by 2050.

According to an analysis by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), published this week in The Lancet, the average life expectancy for Americans is expected to reach 80.4 years by 2050, up slightly from 79.9 years in 2035 and 78.3 years in 2022. Despite this modest increase, the US is projected to continue lagging behind other countries, and researchers are warning of a looming "public health crisis of unimaginable scale."

Life expectancy varies across the US, with New York expected to have the highest life expectancy in the country by 2050. The state is predicted to rank 41st globally, a drop from 33rd place in 2022.

The IHME report highlights that, while life expectancy is rising slightly, the gains in the US are not keeping pace with other nations. As a result, the US’ global ranking is expected to decline to 66th in 2050 among 204 countries and territories.

“In spite of modest increases in life expectancy overall, our models forecast health improvements slowing down due to rising rates of obesity, which is a serious risk factor for many chronic diseases and forecasted to reach unprecedented levels,” said IHME Director Christopher J.L. Murray.

He further emphasized the severity of the situation, adding, “The rise in obesity and overweight rates in the US, with over 260 million people projected to be affected by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable scale.”

Currently, more than 100 million American adults are obese, with over 22 million considered severely obese, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Obesity significantly increases the risk of numerous chronic conditions, including Type 2 diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, certain cancers, and stroke.

IHME’s analysis also suggests that eliminating risk factors such as obesity, high blood sugar, and high blood pressure could add 12.4 million years of life in the US by 2050.

In addition, the report examined the US' health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), which measures the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health. The forecast shows the US’ HALE global ranking will drop from 80th in 2022 to 108th by 2050.

“The rapid decline of the US in global rankings from 2022 to 2050 rings the alarm for immediate action,” said co-senior author Stein Emil Vollset, an affiliate professor from IHME. “The US must change course and implement better health strategies and policies to slow down the decline in future health outcomes.”

US women’s health, in particular, is expected to show little improvement over the next few decades. IHME predicts female HALE will decline by 2050 in 20 states, including Ohio, Tennessee, and Indiana.

Decreases in death rates from heart disease, stroke, and diabetes have been partially offset by rising fatalities from drug overdoses. The opioid epidemic continues to be a major issue, with IHME emphasizing the need for more effective and expanded programs to prevent and treat drug use.

Smoking remains a persistent problem as well. IHME projects that drastically reducing smoking rates could prolong 2.1 million lives by 2050.

This report is not the first to raise concerns about stalled life expectancy gains in the US. Other recent studies have suggested that the biggest increases in longevity are behind us, with modern medicine yielding only modest improvements. Professor S. Jay Olshansky from the University of Illinois Chicago, who co-authored such a study, told The Post that individuals can still work to improve their life expectancy by exercising, eating a healthy diet, getting a good education, following prescribed medications, and avoiding smoking and recreational drugs.